Are planes crashing more often?
Statistics & Probability
After a series of high-profile disasters, some social media users suggested that air travel accidents were becoming more frequent.
Where this idea comes from
Start here — this is the source that inspired this exploration.
Introduction
After a string of high-profile crashes, social media users have claimed that flying is becoming more dangerous. Long-term aviation accident data is public and lets you test that claim directly: pick a fair measure of risk (accidents per flight, per passenger, or per kilometre travelled), look at the actual long-term trend, and use a Poisson model to judge whether a recent cluster of crashes is more than ordinary bad luck.
Guiding Questions
- After several high-profile crashes, people claim flying is getting more dangerous. What does the long-term accident data show?
- Choose a fair measure: accidents per flight, per passenger, per kilometre. How do the trends differ?
- Rare events cluster by chance. Use a Poisson model to test whether a recent cluster is surprising.
- Compare flying with driving using the same measure. How should the result change someone's choices?