Average Sea Temperature
Mathematical Modeling
Med Sea heatwave might feel nice for holiday swimming but there's a catch (BBC)
Where this idea comes from
Start here — this is the source that inspired this exploration.
Introduction
Sea surface temperature has a strong seasonal cycle, warmer in summer and cooler in winter, sitting on top of a slower long-term trend. This exploration fits a sinusoidal model to the seasonal cycle in Mediterranean sea temperature data, adds a trend line to the midline, and uses the combined model to estimate when the sea will next cross a chosen threshold, with an honest look at the uncertainty in that prediction.
Guiding Questions
- Plot average sea temperature against time for the Mediterranean. What pattern do you see within a year, and across years?
- Fit a sinusoidal model for the seasonal cycle. What are its amplitude, period and midline?
- Add a trend to the midline. How fast is the sea warming according to your model?
- Use your model to estimate when a chosen temperature threshold will be crossed — and discuss the uncertainty.