Has the Elizabeth line led to a rise in rental prices?
Statistics & Probability
Compare rental prices near Elizabeth line stations before and after opening, against areas the line doesn't reach.
Where this idea comes from
Start here — this is the source that inspired this exploration.
Introduction
The Elizabeth line opened across London in 2022, and estate agents have claimed it pushed up rents near its stations. Rental data by postcode is available from the ONS Price Index of Private Rents and from listings sites such as Rightmove and Zoopla — enough to test the claim directly rather than take it on trust. Compare rent growth near Elizabeth line stations with growth in comparable areas the line doesn't reach, before and after the opening date.
Guiding Questions
- What does the rental data show before and after the Elizabeth line opened, near and far from stations?
- Compare rent growth near new stations with city-wide growth. Is the difference meaningful?
- Correlation is not causation: what else changed at the same time? How could the analysis control for it?
- Model rent as a function of distance to a station. How far does the 'station effect' reach?