The World Is Warming Up. And It’s Happening Faster.
Statistics & Probability
Human-caused global warming has been increasing faster and faster since the 1970s. New York Times
Where this idea comes from
Start here — this is the source that inspired this exploration.
Introduction
A New York Times analysis of global temperature data asks whether a single straight line fits the warming record, or whether the rate of warming has itself changed over time — a piecewise or accelerating model rather than a straight one. This exploration works with the same kind of public temperature-anomaly data: fit a straight line, then a quadratic or piecewise model, and compare what each predicts for 2050. Decide which model the data actually supports, not just which one fits best on paper.
Guiding Questions
- Plot global temperature anomaly over time. Does a straight line fit, or is the warming speeding up?
- Compare linear and quadratic fits. What does each predict for 2050?
- Calculate the rate of warming decade by decade. When did it accelerate?
- How much difference does the choice of model make to the predictions — and why does that matter?