Conditional Probability
applied
So many scenarios, think beyond the cards.
Introduction
Given you have a 10, what is the probability of Blackjack in the popular card game Blackjack if there is one deck, two decks etc? Could you extend this to other scenarios? What is the probability of a ‘full house’ in poker? It is sensible to simplify and model this scenario with probability trees and Venn diagrams etc. Extension: It is difficult to produce significant difficult maths in this topic but there is the possibility of introducing Bayes’ Theorem.
Guiding Questions
- What is the sample space for this scenario?
- How can you calculate the theoretical probabilities?
- What simulation methods could you use to verify your results?
- How does changing parameters affect the expected outcomes?
- What are the limitations of your probability model?
Key Mathematical Concepts
Statistics
Bayes Theorem
Conditional Probability
Logic