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AI HL · 12.7

Mathematical Models

12.7.4

Sinusoidal and logistic models

12.7.4

Sinusoidal and logistic models

Target: I can build a model P = a sin(b(t − c)) + d from the mean, amplitude, period and a crossing time or phase shift. (+4 more)

By the end of this section

Key points

Sinusoidal models

  • Model: \(P=a\sin(b(t-c))+d\). a is the amplitude, d is the mean (the central line), c is the phase shift and \(b=\dfrac{2\pi}{T}\).
  • From a maximum and a minimum: amplitude \(=\dfrac{\max-\min}{2}\) and mean \(=\dfrac{\max+\min}{2}\).
  • c is a time when the curve is on the central line and rising. If the first crossing is at t = 1.5 and rising, c = 1.5.
  • Set the calculator to radians. Always graph the model and check the maximum, the minimum and the period.

Logistic models

  • Model: \(P=\dfrac{L}{1+Ce^{-kt}}\). L is the carrying capacity: the value the population levels off at.
  • At t = 0, \(P=\dfrac{L}{1+C}\). So \(C=\dfrac{L}{P_0}-1\), where \(P_0\) is the initial population.
  • Then use one later population in the model and solve for k on the calculator.
  • k is the growth rate. A larger k means the curve reaches L sooner.

Reading a logistic curve

  • Early on the curve looks exponential. Later the growth slows and the curve flattens at L.
  • Growth is fastest when \(P=\dfrac L2\), at \(t=\dfrac{\ln C}{k}\). This is the steepest point of the S-curve.
  • An exponential model keeps growing without limit. A logistic model cannot go above L.

On the calculator

Graphing a sinusoidal model to check it

  • Check the angle mode is radians.
  • Graph the model. Check the maximum, the minimum and the length of one period.
  • Adjust the window so a full period shows.

Screenshot and video to come

Solving for k in a logistic model

  • Put C and L in. Write the equation for the known population, such as \(65=\dfrac{800}{1+39e^{-3k}}\).
  • Solve for k.
  • Check by putting k back: you should get the population you started with.

Screenshot and video to come

Finding when a model reaches a value

  • Type the model equals the target value, then solve for t.
  • For a sinusoidal model there are many solutions. Use the graph to choose the one the question asks for.

Screenshot and video to come

Explore: P = L ÷ (1 + Ce−kt)

Change L, C and k. The dashed line is the carrying capacity. The orange point is where the population grows fastest. Say which of the three values it depends on before you test it.



Initial population
Carrying capacity
Fastest growth at t =
P at that time

Move a slider.

  1. Change k. Which of the start value, the carrying capacity and the time of fastest growth move? Which stay put?
  2. At the orange point, what fraction of L has been reached? Does that change when you change L, C or k? Why?
  3. Change C. How does the start value change? Check it with L ÷ (1 + C).
  4. Look at the two curves for small t, then for large t. Where do they separate, and what does the logistic model include that the exponential does not?

Explore: a sin(b(t − c)) + d, the tide and the Ferris wheel

These are depth readings from a harbour. Before you move anything, work out the mean d and the amplitude a from the highest and lowest readings. Then drag the orange points on the curve, or use the sliders, until the curve passes close to the readings. The teal dots are the readings that are already close.

Range (min to max)
Readings within 0.2 m

Move a slider.

  1. Which point moves the whole curve up and down? Which one changes the height of the peaks? How can you tell d and a apart on the graph?
  2. Change the period T. What happens to b? Check that b × T is always 2π.
  3. Find a model that fits, then change c by half a period. What happens to the curve? Which readings are now wrong?
  4. Why is the highest depth d + a and the lowest d − a?
  5. On the Ferris wheel, the rider gets on at the bottom. Why is the model −a cos(bt) + d and not a sin(bt) + d? Where is the rider after half a turn?

Worked examples

Problems like the ones in class. Pick one, try it, then open the working.
A harbour tide

The depth of water in a harbour is modelled by \(D=a\sin(b(t-c))+d\), where t is in hours. The mean depth is 4.5 m, the amplitude is 1.8 m and the period is 12 hours. At t = 2 the depth is the mean depth and rising. (a) Find a, b, c and d. (b) Find the depth at t = 4.

Working
  1. Read off

    a = 1.8, d = 4.5

    The amplitude is a. The mean is d.

  2. Find b

    \(b=2\pi\div12=0.524\)

    Radians. The period is 12 hours.

  3. Find c

    c = 2

    The curve is on the mean and rising at t = 2. That is the phase shift.

  4. The model

    \(D=1.8\sin(0.524(t-2))+4.5\)

    Check by graphing: the maximum is 6.3 and the minimum is 2.7.

  5. Part (b)

    \(D=1.8\sin(0.524\times2)+4.5=6.06\)

    About 6.06 m.

Video walkthrough coming
A water wave

A water wave has amplitude 0.6 m. The still-water level is 2.5 m above the sea bed. The wavelength is 8 m and the phase shift is 1 m. The height of the surface is \(h=a\sin(b(x-c))+d\) where x is the horizontal distance in metres. (a) Write the model. (b) Find h when x = 3.

Working
  1. Amplitude and level

    a = 0.6, d = 2.5

    The central line is the still-water level.

  2. Find b

    \(b=2\pi\div8=0.785\)

    For a wave, the wavelength is the length of one period.

  3. The model

    \(h=0.6\sin(0.785(x-1))+2.5\)

    The shift is 1, so (x − 1).

  4. At x = 3

    \(h=0.6\sin(0.785\times2)+2.5=3.1\)

    The surface is at its crest: 2.5 + 0.6 = 3.1 m.

Video walkthrough coming
From a maximum and a minimum

The temperature in a greenhouse varies between a maximum of 31°C and a minimum of 13°C. The period is 24 hours and the phase shift is 6 hours. Model it as \(T=a\sin(b(t-c))+d\). (a) Find the central line d. (b) Write the model. (c) Find T when t = 10.

Working
  1. Mean

    \(d=\dfrac{31+13}{2}=22\)

    The central line is halfway between the max and the min.

  2. Amplitude

    \(a=\dfrac{31-13}{2}=9\)

    Half the range.

  3. Find b

    \(b=2\pi\div24=0.262\)

    The period is 24 hours.

  4. The model

    \(T=9\sin(0.262(t-6))+22\)

    At t = 10: 29.8°C.

Video walkthrough coming
A logistic model from two populations

A population of deer on a reserve is modelled by \(P=\dfrac{L}{1+Ce^{-kt}}\), t in years. The reserve can support 800 deer. There are 20 deer at t = 0 and 65 deer at t = 3. Find C and k.

Working
  1. L and C

    L = 800. At t = 0: \(20=\dfrac{800}{1+C}\), so C = 800 ÷ 20 − 1 = 39

    At t = 0, \(e^{0}=1\).

  2. Use t = 3

    \(65=\dfrac{800}{1+39e^{-3k}}\)

    Put in the second population.

  3. Solve for k

    Solve for k: k = 0.413

    Use the calculator's solver.

  4. The model

    \(P=\dfrac{800}{1+39e^{-0.413t}}\)

    Check: at t = 3 it gives 65.

Video walkthrough coming
Using a logistic model

A school's flu cases are modelled by \(P=\dfrac{1200}{1+15e^{-0.6t}}\), where t is in days. (a) Find P when t = 5. (b) Find when P reaches 1000.

Working
  1. Part (a)

    \(P=\dfrac{1200}{1+15e^{-0.6\times5}}=687\)

    About 687 cases.

  2. Part (b)

    \(\dfrac{1200}{1+15e^{-0.6t}}=1000\)

    Set P = 1000.

  3. Solve for t

    Solve for t: t = 7.20

    About 7.20 days. The model never passes 1200, so 1000 is reachable.

Video walkthrough coming
Reading a logistic curve

The graph shows a logistic model \(P=\dfrac{300}{1+14e^{-0.4t}}\) (solid) and an exponential model with the same start (dashed). (a) Write down the carrying capacity. (b) Find the initial population. (c) Find when the logistic population is growing fastest. (d) Compare the two models for large t.

24681012141650100150200250300350tPlogisticexponential
Working
  1. Carrying capacity

    L = 300

    The dashed line is where the logistic curve levels off.

  2. Initial population

    \(P(0)=\dfrac{300}{1+14}=20\)

    L ÷ (1 + C).

  3. Fastest growth

    \(t=\dfrac{\ln14}{0.4}=6.60\), when P = 150

    The steepest point is at half the carrying capacity.

  4. Compare

    Logistic levels off at 300. Exponential keeps growing.

    Both start at 20 and look alike at first. The exponential has no limit, so it is only a good model while resources are plentiful.

Video walkthrough coming