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AI HL · 13.1

Probability

13.1.4

Probability from two-way tables

13.1.4

Probability from two-way tables

Target: I can total the rows and columns of a two-way table and use the grand total as the size of the sample space. (+3 more)

By the end of this section

Key points

Reading a two-way table

  • A two-way table sorts one group in two ways at once, for example by year group and by how they travel to school.
  • Always total every row and every column first. The grand total is the number of people (or items) in the whole group.
  • A cell in the middle of the table is the number with both properties: the Bus row and the Year 10 column.
  • The row totals add to the grand total, and so do the column totals. Use that as a check.

Simple probabilities

  • P(event) = the number in the event ÷ the grand total.
  • For a whole row or column, use its total as the top of the fraction.
  • 'And' means one cell. 'Or' means add the row total and the column total, then take off the shared cell once, because it was counted twice.
  • Give a fraction in lowest terms, or a decimal. Never leave the answer as a count.

Given that (conditional probability)

  • 'Given that' tells you a fact already. Only that row or column is left, and its total is the new denominator.
  • \(P(\text{Year 11} \mid \text{walks})\) uses the Walk row only: Year 11 walkers ÷ all walkers.
  • The words after 'given that', or after 'who', decide the denominator. 'A walker who is in Year 11' and 'a Year 11 student who walks' are different questions.
  • Check the denominator is smaller than the grand total. If it is the grand total, you have not used the condition.

Worked examples

Problems like the ones in class. Pick one, try it, then open the working.
Reading a probability from totals

The table shows how 80 students in Year 10 and Year 11 travel to school. A student is chosen at random. Find the probability that the student comes by bus.

TravelYear 10Year 11Bus1422Walk911Car717
Working
  1. TravelYear 10Year 11TotalBus142236Walk91120Car71724Total305080
    Add the totals

    Bus row: 14 + 22 = 36. Walk: 9 + 11 = 20. Car: 7 + 17 = 24.

    Total every row and every column before you read a probability.

  2. Grand total

    36 + 20 + 24 = 80

    The rows and the columns give the same grand total. Use it as a check.

  3. Divide

    \(P(\text{bus})=\frac{36}{80}=\frac{9}{20}=0.45\)

    The row total is the number of students in the event. The grand total is every student.

Video walkthrough coming
A restricted sample space

Use the table in the last example. A student who walks to school is chosen at random. Find the probability that this student is in Year 11.

TravelYear 10Year 11TotalBus142236Walk91120Car71724Total305080
Working
  1. Use the given fact

    The student walks: only the Walk row is left. 9 + 11 = 20

    The words after 'given' or 'who' tell you which row or column to keep.

  2. Count the event in it

    Year 11 walkers: 11

    Look along the same row for the property you want.

  3. Divide

    \(P(\text{Year 11}\mid\text{walks})=\frac{11}{20}=0.55\)

    The denominator is 20, not 80.

Video walkthrough coming
Two rows kept, then divide

A swimming pool records its 80 visitors by session and age. Find the probability that a visitor chosen at random who did not swim in the morning session is a child.

TimeAdultChildMorning2010Afternoon155Evening525
Working
  1. TimeAdultChildTotalMorning201030Afternoon15520Evening52530Total404080
    Totals

    Morning 30, Afternoon 20, Evening 30. Adult 40, Child 40. Total 80.

    Add the rows and the columns.

  2. Keep the sample space

    Not morning: Afternoon + Evening = 20 + 30 = 50

    Two rows are left. Their totals add.

  3. Count children in it

    Children: 5 + 25 = 30

    Add the Child cells of the two rows.

  4. Divide

    \(P(\text{child}\mid\text{not morning})=\frac{30}{50}=\frac{3}{5}=0.6\)

    Fifty visitors are left, so the denominator is 50.

Video walkthrough coming