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AI SL · 13.1

Probability

13.1.5

Combined events and mutually exclusive events

13.1.5

Combined events and mutually exclusive events

Target: I can use P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) to find the probability of A or B. (+4 more)

By the end of this section

Key points

A or B

  • A ∪ B (A union B) means A happens, or B happens, or both happen. A ∩ B (A intersection B) means both happen.
  • \(P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cap B)\). This formula is in the formula booklet, but you must know how to use it.
  • Adding P(A) and P(B) counts the overlap twice. Subtracting one copy fixes that.
  • A Venn diagram shows it: the overlap is inside both circles.
  • Exactly one of A and B: \(P(A\cup B)-P(A\cap B)\). Both circles minus the overlap, counted once.

Using the formula

  • Write the formula first. Put the known numbers in. Then rearrange.
  • To find the overlap: \(P(A\cap B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cup B)\).
  • To find P(B): \(P(B)=P(A\cup B)-P(A)+P(A\cap B)\).
  • P(neither) = 1 − P(A ∪ B). Check your answer is between 0 and 1.

Mutually exclusive events

  • Mutually exclusive events cannot happen together: \(P(A\cap B)=0\). The circles do not overlap.
  • Then \(P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)\). It is the formula with nothing to subtract.
  • Test: if \(P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cup B)\) is not 0, the events are not mutually exclusive.
  • Mutually exclusive does not mean 'unrelated'. Rolling a 1 and rolling a 6 on one die are mutually exclusive.

Explore: two events in a Venn diagram

Type P(A), P(B) and P(A ∩ B). The four regions fill in. Choose what to shade and read the working. The circles are not drawn to scale.

Shade

P(A ∪ B)
P(A′)
P(A | B)
P(B | A)
P(A) × P(B)

Type three probabilities to fill the diagram.

  1. Start with P(A) = 0.5 and P(B) = 0.4. Change only P(A ∩ B) until the events are independent. What value does it need, and how do you know?
  2. Choose "Mutually exclusive". Look at P(A | B). Why is it 0? Are the events independent?
  3. Compare P(A | B) with P(B | A). When are they the same, and why is it usually not so?
  4. Try a P(A ∩ B) bigger than P(A). What does the sentence say, and why can it never happen?

Worked examples

Problems like the ones in class. Pick one, try it, then open the working.
Finding the overlap

A and B are events with P(A) = 0.55, P(B) = 0.35 and P(A ∪ B) = 0.7. Find P(A ∩ B).

Working
  1. The formula

    \(P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cap B)\)

    Adding P(A) and P(B) counts the overlap twice, so one copy is taken off.

  2. Put the numbers in

    \(0.7=0.55+0.35-P(A\cap B)\)

    Write the equation before you rearrange it.

  3. 0.350.20.150.3AB
    Rearrange

    \(P(A\cap B)=0.55+0.35-0.7=0.2\)

    Swap the unknown with P(A ∪ B).

Video walkthrough coming
Finding the union

P(A) = 0.45, P(B) = 0.3 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.1. Find the probability that A or B or both happen.

Working
  1. 'Or' means union

    \(P(A\text{ or }B)=P(A\cup B)\)

    'Or' includes both events happening.

  2. Formula

    \(P(A\cup B)=0.45+0.3-0.1\)

    Add, then take off the overlap once.

  3. 0.350.10.20.35AB
    Answer

    \(P(A\cup B)=0.65\)

    Check: it must be at least as big as P(A) and as P(B).

Video walkthrough coming
Finding P(B)

P(A) = 0.5, P(A ∩ B) = 0.15 and P(A ∪ B) = 0.8. Find P(B).

Working
  1. The formula

    \(0.8=0.5+P(B)-0.15\)

    Put the three known values in first.

  2. Collect the numbers

    \(0.8=0.35+P(B)\)

    0.5 − 0.15 = 0.35.

  3. 0.350.150.30.2AB
    Solve

    \(P(B)=0.8-0.35=0.45\)

    A probability must be between 0 and 1. It is.

Video walkthrough coming
Mutually exclusive, decimals

A and B are mutually exclusive. P(A) = 0.35 and P(A ∪ B) = 0.6. Find P(B).

Working
  1. Mutually exclusive

    \(P(A\cap B)=0\)

    They cannot happen together, so the circles do not overlap.

  2. The formula shortens

    \(P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)\), so \(0.6=0.35+P(B)\)

    The intersection term is 0.

  3. Solve

    \(P(B)=0.6-0.35=0.25\)

Video walkthrough coming
Mutually exclusive, fractions

A and B are mutually exclusive, with P(A) = 1/4 and P(B) = 2/5. Find P(A ∪ B).

Working
  1. Add

    \(P(A\cup B)=\frac{1}{4}+\frac{2}{5}\)

    Mutually exclusive: nothing to subtract.

  2. Common denominator

    \(=\frac{5}{20}+\frac{8}{20}\)

    The lowest common multiple of 4 and 5 is 20.

  3. Answer

    \(=\frac{13}{20}=0.65\)

    Fractions in lowest terms are fine; a decimal is too.

Video walkthrough coming
Exactly one of the two

For events A and B, P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.45 and P(A ∪ B) = 0.8. Find the probability that exactly one of A and B happens.

Working
  1. Find the overlap

    \(P(A\cap B)=0.6+0.45-0.8=0.25\)

    Rearrange the combined events formula.

  2. Each event without the overlap

    A only: \(0.6-0.25=0.35\). B only: \(0.45-0.25=0.2\)

    Take the overlap out of each circle.

  3. Add the two parts

    \(0.35+0.2=0.55\)

    Same as \(P(A\cup B)-P(A\cap B)=0.8-0.25\).

Video walkthrough coming